Some wires got crossed this week, so we weren’t able to post my article for the subscribers at Noledigest.com like usual, so I’m putting it here:

We’ll Meet Again …

Monday’s loss was yet another devastating chapter of the FSU-UM series for the ‘Noles, with the ‘Canes in the lead when the game ended with one second left on the clock. While I don’t believe in moral victories against hated rivals (especially Miami), there’s a lot to be excited about if you’re a Seminole fan.

The Offense

Sure, the defense gave up a ton of yards and 38 points against a young Miami offense, but the college game is won at the quarterback position, and the ‘Noles finally have a top-shelf player taking the snaps. Christian Ponder is the reason the Seminole staff has been quietly confident all offseason that they can improve on last year’s record and take a big step back towards being a national power. And within the first ten minutes of the first quarter, it was clear that confidence has not been misplaced.

This is the first time since 2000 that the ‘Noles have had an undisputed, respected team leader behind center, and Ponder did everything he could to validate that leadership. By the end of the first quarter, I was on the phone with my father (a former D-1 QB himself), as both of us were struck by how much Ponder looked like FSU’s last Heisman Trophy winner. Granted, the kid runs a lot better than Weinke ever did, but his pocket presence, his presence in the huddle, and his total command of the offense—he didn’t have a single play where it appeared he didn’t know where everyone was supposed to be—those things looked like the venerable old man who led the ‘Noles to their last title. Ponder took all of one game in 2009 to demonstrate his development to the many nay-sayers who felt that Ponder had a limited ceiling.

Part of the reason Ponder was able to have such success was because the offensive line kept him clean—as bad as FSU’s pass rush was, Miami didn’t get much more pressure. And though the receivers—notably Fortson and Owens—missed some opportunities that ended up hurting badly, that segment looked the best they have in years, with Richard Goodman having an excellent break-out game in the first game of his senior year. Fortson, despite having three drops, also flashed outstanding run-after-catch ability and gave every indication of becoming a special player (presuming he gets over how the game ended).

FSU’s running game was less dominant than last year, but that was partially because of the commitment Miami made to stopping the run—they were going to force Ponder to beat them with his arm, and he very nearly did. That said, Ty Jones looked outstanding after taking over the bulk of the load from a dinged-up Jermaine Thomas. The right guard spot could still use a little more consistency, and McMahon didn’t have his best game as a ‘Nole, but the OL looks to be on schedule.

All told, there’s not much to complain about on offense, and that’s where close games are won in college football these days—if you score 40 points every game, you’ll win almost all of them, and I’m not sure we’ll be held under 30 this year. That offense looked every bit as good as the Texas and Oklahoma squads that have been lighting things up in the BigXII the last couple years.

The Defense

Obviously the defense needs a lot of work, with no pass rush to speak of and trouble in coverage. The points of concern going into the year—defensive line, rover, and the second cornerback—turned out to be well-founded concerns. That said, the coaching staff appeared willing to go scheme more than they have in the past in the effort to hide some of those weaknesses while accentuating strengths. Having trouble with the DL? Put one or two on the field, load up on linebackers (a major strength—they looked excellent as a group), and zone blitz from numerous angles.

The new third-down defensive wrinkle, the “Prowler” (or, as Belichick called it some years back, the “UFO” defense), won’t work as an every-time option, but it is a good thing to have in the back pocket to give teams lots to work on and pull out at critical moments.

And as for that second corner, true freshman Greg Reid gave Seminole fans plenty to be excited about as he more than validated his five star recruiting rating. As the ‘Noles get healthier up front, the big gap remaining to be filled is the rover position, where Myron Rolle was badly missed.

As poorly as the defense played as a whole, the fact that their struggles were not due to a shortage of talent (there was a ton of speed on the field), nor an unwillingness to scheme, nor bad schemes themselves, but were due mainly a lack of experience, suggests that the Seminole defense will only improve as the year goes along.

That said, we badly need Kevin McNeil to step up at the defensive end opposite Markus White, and I would suggest perhaps moving Demonte McCallister to end in order to get a big, explosive presence in the rotation out there (once he’s healthy again), despite his youth. We’re still a bit small on the defensive line, which won’t get fixed this year, but it’s not a debilitating lack of size, especially if Mincey can return at mid-year.

The Outlook

Though disappointed, I’m actually very excited by what I saw out there. Yes, we lost, but the level of talent and coordination on both sides was very high—significantly higher than it has been in years. And both teams, though young, had the “fight” and conditioning levels of their old glory days. It’s amazing how the culture of mediocrity that had become so entrenched at FSU is entirely gone now. That team has learned how to play the game, and it has taken on the personality of its offensive coordinator.

I saw every ACC team of consequence aside from Clemson this weekend, and those two teams are by far the best two teams in the league. Miami will give Oklahoma all they can handle, and if they can get past the schematic nightmare that is Georgia Tech, they’re going to win their side of the conference (I actually don’t think it’s far-fetched to have an unbeaten Miami team going into the ACCCG). UNC and Virginia Tech are both good football teams with outstanding defenses, but I don’t think either team can score enough to beat Miami, and UNC won’t score enough to beat FSU, either.

If FSU can beat BYU in Provo (a tall task, but one I think our offense is up to), it’s not far-fetched to think that this team can outscore every other team on the schedule up to the Florida game, again provided they can get past the Georgia Tech nightmare. Either way, I expect this FSU team and this Miami team to get reacquainted in December, this time with an ACC title on the line. We’ll meet again, Miami. We’ll finish that last second in Tampa.