Football Predictions 10/10/09

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Jason Staples Substack

Getting these in right before the games start this week:

I’m torn on the FSU/Georgia Tech game. On the one hand, I think there’s no way that FSU wins this game because they can’t stop the run (they’ve given up 5 yards per carry in every game this year). On the other hand, the sharps in Vegas really like FSU in this one, as FSU is actually favored by a field goal in this one. That kind of sucker spread usually means the favored team will win going away. I also can’t get over how slow GaTech looked against Miami. Look for a lot of points to be scored in this one (especially if FSU goes up-tempo/no huddle, which is a possibility), and this is the ultimate example of “the team that scores a TD first will win” mentality—if FSU scores a TD early, it could jumpstart their confidence, but if they give one up early, their confidence is fragile. I’m going to go with the sharps and assume that FSU scores first, with good FSU showing up and surprisingly winning, 42–31.

Georgia should beat Tennessee, though Tennessee has the defense to make it interesting. UGa 24, Tenn 17.

Arkansas should beat Auburn; Auburn still hasn’t played a top team this year, and Arkansas should be able to score on Auburn’s defense. Hogs 45, Tigers 35.

Florida wins big over LSU, whether or not Tebow plays. I’m not sold on LSU this year, and their lack of a pass rush is a very negative thing to bring in against the Gators. LSU also will have a very hard time scoring points in this game. I hope I’m wrong, but UF 27, LSU 13.

Virginia Tech will cover against Boston College; they’ll be able to shut down the Eagles’ offense more like Clemson did, and they certainly won’t allow four long scoring drives like FSU did. Virginia Tech 31, Boston College 14.

Alabama beats Mississippi, 34–20.

(Last Week: 3–3; Season: 5–9)

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