A Few Pre-Game Thoughts and Why I Think FSU Beats Miami

Categories: Sports

Stay Updated

Get notifications of new books, posts, and other media (now on Substack).

Jason Staples Substack

Tonight’s game is huge for both FSU and Miami as they are each trying to move back into national power status. Most pundits seem to have favored the ‘Canes, while Vegas gives the ‘Noles a slight edge. Here’s why I have FSU winning 38–20:

1) Some pundits (like ESPN’s Heather Dinich, who I think otherwise tends to do a very good job) have Miami winning because the game is “more urgent” for them since their first four games are so difficult. This is erroneous; anyone close to the FSU-UM series can tell you no game is EVER more urgent for one side or another. It’s Florida State-Miami. That’s enough to make it a 15 on the 1–10 urgency scale, so no advantage to either side on that.
2) When in doubt, I go with the better QB. When that is in doubt, I go with the more experienced QB. I think FSU has both in Christian Ponder. This is especially true in a first game, where more tends to go wrong and having a veteran, stable presence at QB matters even more.
3) Both teams are banged up on the DL and will likely have trouble stopping the run, and both teams have outstanding LB crews (FSU’s might be their best in some years). But FSU’s entire OL returns, which should be an edge there.
4) It’s at FSU.
5) With two new coordinators, it can sometimes go either way—Miami will have been harder to prepare for because they’re effectively a blank slate. But on the other hand, first games under a new coordinator (often the first few games) tend to be a little sloppier than normal, leading me to expect a turnover or two on that end. When in doubt and between otherwise even teams, I give the nod to the team without new coordinators.

All this adds up to an FSU win, and with both teams being so young, an early lead could turn into a bigger one pretty quickly. That said, I hope I’m right. These teams are awfully close in terms of talent, and you never know what’s going to happen in an FSU-UM game.

*POST GAME EDIT: Well, my prediction was wrong, but wow was that a game. It was a definite “stomach punch” game, but that is FSU-UM in a nutshell. But it was fairly obvious that those were the two best teams in the ACC; they’re likely to meet again at the end of the year.*

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Fill out this field
Fill out this field
Please enter a valid email address.

Jason Staples Icon
Sunday Reflections on Saturday’s Football Games
Jason Staples Icon
“We’ll Meet Again”: My Post-Miami Noledigest.com Article