Professor Obvious» FSU

Notes on the QBs in the 2011 NFL Draft

Jason A. Staples — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 20:05:41 +0000

This was a really interesting QB draft, as pretty much every major prospect had significant question marks, with the various draftnik experts having significantly different rankings for the QBs. It is somewhat surprising to me that, given these question marks, that four guys went in the top 12 picks. In a totally rational world, you’d expect the position group to drop a bit in the draft, as teams needing QBs traded down to get to a point where they felt the risks and rewards were at equilibrium. But no, this is the NFL, where these question marks only meant that each team (likely experiencing group cognitive dissonance) was even more sure that they wanted to get their specific guy before anyone else, the guy they were certain would be the best of the bunch.

My ratings were pretty different from most, as I had FSU’s Christian Ponder as the top QB in the draft, with Cam Newton well down the list. I’ve spent some time around Ponder and his coach, Jimbo Fisher, and I’m convinced Ponder’s going to be a reliable, excellent pro quarterback. He’s a guy who does the little things well, and he doesn’t have any major weaknesses that should keep him from being a successful player, provided he can stay healthy (the one knock on him). I became completely sold on Ponder as an NFL prospect in 2009, when I watched him in person as he torched a very good UNC defense, bringing FSU back from behind in a hostile environment with a masterful display of all the skills needed at the position in the pros.

Then, when I was in New Orleans in November of 2009, I was eating in a restaurant that had mirrors along the wall when I saw Christian Ponder dropping back to make a throw in the mirror. A bit surprised to see highlights at that point (and thinking, “wait a second, FSU hasn’t played in white pants this year), I turned around to the TV, only to realize that it was an ESPN Classic replay of the 1994 NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and the Cowboys. It wasn’t Ponder dropping back to throw—it was Steve Young. After watching in the mirror for a while, I walked out of the restaurant struck by how much Christian Ponder looks like a mirror image of Steve Young. Consider me double sold.

Do I expect Ponder to turn out as good as Young? Well, considering that I put Young in my top three all-time NFL QBs, no. But it says a lot about a QB’s West Coast Offense potential if he looks at all like Young. He has a high ceiling in that offense, and Minnesota’s new staff will be running it. I think that’s an excellent fit (so long as they get a veteran to start initially so he doesn’t get thrown to the wolves right away) for the guy I have as the #1 QB in the draft.

I had Christian Ponder as the top QB prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft

My QB rankings going into the draft looked like this:

Christian Ponder (FSU): I think he’s a ten-year starter in the NFL and a fantastic West Coast Offense prospect. He’s had some injury problems, but most of them have been of the fluky variety and he’s been willing to play through pain. Good but not great size. Big hands. He has a slightly-above-average NFL arm (think Matt Hasselbeck) and can make all the throws with enough zip, though he isn’t going to knock anyone over with his velocity. Has a quick, compact, efficient release that was overhauled in his first two years under Jimbo Fisher; despite not having as strong an arm as some of the other QBs in the draft, the ball will get there more quickly because of the quickness of his release, which is more important. He has some of the best footwork in the pocket and dropback mechanics of anyone entering the draft the last few years. He does tend towards the minor mechanical flaw of opening his hips too much and transferring his weight left rather than forward, but that appears to have been corrected at this point. He displays excellent anticipation and understanding of coverages, though he can out think himself at times. He’ll be a major film junkie at the next level as he loves the game at the strategic level. His NFL coaches will have to work to make sure he doesn’t overthink on the field, encouraging him to “just play” at times. He lacks ideal touch on “bucket” throws (fly, fade, etc.) downfield, though he has the arm strength to get better there. Very accurate in the intermediate zones and will deliver the ball in stride. Good athlete, mobile, and runs to throw. Good ballhandler and will be very good in play-action situations. Needs to improve at looking off coverage downfield. Hard worker, good character off the field, good clubhouse leader.
Jake Locker (Washington): I wouldn’t have taken him in the top-10 (I think his value is in the low 20 range) and don’t think he’s a sure-fire guy, but I like him better than the younger players below him. Athletically, he’s the next best QB in the draft after Cam Newton, and he’s significantly farther along as a QB. Good size, plays very fast outside the pocket. Actually throws better on the run than from the pocket at this point. Like Ponder, I think a big part of his success at the NFL level will result from coaches getting him to play instinctively from the pocket instead of over-thinking everything. The game still moves quickly for him. Has a terrific arm with a quick, compact release and can really spin the ball. Has played baseball in the offseason while in college, which is another factor that suggests he has plenty of room for improvement. The real knock on Locker is accuracy from the pocket, where he is just too inconsistent. The concern is that his throwing mechanics are already pretty good, so it’s not clear whether he will ever make the leap to being an accurate passer. That said, he’s a high character player and will put in the hours, so I’d rather risk NFL dollars on him than on a guy like Newton, whose ceiling is admittedly higher.
Blaine Gabbert (Missouri): I would have started looking at Gabbert in the 20-25 range. Big kid, strong arm (not as strong as Locker’s, however), good athlete. His release is a little long, so there’s a little time lost between the start of the delivery and the arrival of the football. The concerns here are that he has very limited tape as a one year starter and that he played in a spread scheme that typically provided bigger throwing windows than he’s going to get in the NFL. Smart kid, also works hard. Doesn’t throw on the run as well as Locker or Ponder, but it isn’t a liability. More accurate in the deep range from the pocket than either of the top two guys at this point. He’s likely to become a solid starter given the right surroundings, though I don’t see him as a Pro Bowler down the line.
Cam Newton (Auburn): This guy could be an all-time great or Ryan Leaf/Jamarcus Russell. If I was convinced he had reliable character, he’s a top-10 pick. Elite physical prospect in every way. Freakish size/speed combo, huge hands, and may have the strongest arm other than Ryan Mallett in this draft. Has a pretty good motion at this point (unlike Tim Tebow from last year’s draft) and can tighten up his release. Seems able to respond to coaching rapidly with respect to motion, etc., though he also tends to get sloppy/lazy with his mechanics when he’s not thinking specifically about them. He’s as likely to look like Jeff George mechanics-wise in five years as John Elway. He has similar accuracy questions to what Locker does, though his mechanics have more to improve, so things may be easier to fix on that front. The amount of baggage he may bring into an NFL locker room is what would scare me away from using a high pick on him. I’m somewhat risk-averse when addressing QBs and handing out lots of money early in the NFL draft, so that knocks him pretty far down my list. If I had interviewed him and felt 100% confident in his non-physical components, I’d pick him higher, but outside of that, I wouldn’t have wanted to go earlier than second half of the first round. The Panthers either made a huge error or got a Hall of Famer. There’s not likely to be much in-between here.
Ryan Mallett (Arkansas): Huge dropoff here, as I have him graded around the third round. A guy with even more character concerns than Newton, but he does have big time tools. Huge guy but also a statue. Probably has the strongest arm to enter the draft in the last five years. Above-average but not elite release quickness and good overall throwing mechanics from the waist up. Footwork is lethargic, he doesn’t get the depth on his drops you’d want (or expect from a guy his size), and he relies far too much on his arm strength. Will throw off his back foot and can be baited. Not a hard worker. Not a total project as a lot of the foundation is there, but he hasn’t been a hard worker so far, so why expect him to become one once he starts getting paid? Could be an elite starter if he straightened out, but again, not the kind of guy I’d be going into the draft to land. Could be a really good one if he lands in a good situation, his attitude straightens out, and he gets his footwork in order. Could also be a washout.
Colin Kaepernick (Nevada): Tall, rangy kid with a really strong arm but an equally long release. Inconsistent with his release points, but that also means he can throw through different passing windows as need be. Very raw prospect. Could be Randall Cunningham or a two-year third quarterback. Very good athlete who can run and throw outside the pocket. Also seems to have good intangibles, though I know less about him on that front than about the others above him. I’d consider him if I had a solid QB situation for a couple years and could think about a developmental pick. Probably best suited for a Coryell type offense with more downfield stuff.
Andy Dalton (TCU): I’m not as high on him as a lot of other folks. He has good size but is an average athlete, has an average to slightly-above-average arm, and played in a spread offense typically against lesser competition with huge passing lanes. I figure he ends up a career backup, but he could become a starter in the right circumstances.
Ricky Stanzi (Iowa): Struggled some in the postseason examination period and needs a lot of work on his footwork. Decent athlete, good size, average arm, above-average release. Struggles with accuracy mainly because his footwork is not very good. Good deep ball when his feet are set, though.
Greg McElroy (Alabama): At worst you’re getting a really smart clipboard holder. Solid release, average arm, slightly under ideal size. Very accurate in short-to-intermediate range and can manage the game. He’s not a great athlete, but has good footwork and gets the most out of himself. Good character, probably a good #2 QB for a number of years in the league.
Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech): Undersized but has a good arm and instincts. I remain curious to see what would happen if an NFL team decided to take about three guys like Taylor at QB and then line up in a spread-option type offense, aware that they may lose a QB for a few games here and there but having a replacement on the sideline. Could be a reasonable #3 QB who could also contribute at other positions. Had poor footwork until his senior year, when he showed noticeable improvement.

Must-read on Myron Rolle

NCAA Football Picks 2010 – Week 11

Jason A. Staples — Sat, 13 Nov 2010 16:42:06 +0000

Back at it in the week following my Greek Prelim—won’t have a whole lot of time for blogging until after my prelims finish at the beginning of December. Went 18–6 last week, which takes my season total to 151–49 (75.5%).

ACC:

UNC 31, Virginia Tech 30 — This is a toss-up game; were UNC tailback Johnny White still healthy, I’d be confident in UNC going in, despite VaTech having more time to prepare.
FSU 34, Clemson 27 — Another toss-up, but Clemson’s lack of a downfield passing game won’t allow them to challenge FSU where they’re weakest.
Miami 28, GaTech 24
BC 34, Duke 31
NC State 45, Wake Forest 21
Maryland 31, UVa 17

SEC:

Georgia 41, Auburn 38 — This was the pick even before all the Cam Newton turmoil began…
Ole Miss 35, Tennessee 20
Kentucky 38, Vandy 14
Arkansas 52, UTEP 20
LSU 48, La Monroe 9
South Carolina 31, Florida 27
Bama 34, Miss St. 17

Top 25:

Oregon 45, Cal 28
TCU 42, SDSU 13
Stanford 41, ASU 21
Wisconsin 35, Indiana 31
Nebraska 54, Kansas 13
Ohio St. 38, Penn St. 13
Oklahoma St. 31, Texas 24
Iowa 37, N’Western 20
Utah 31, ND 27
OU 34, TTU 20
Mizzou 31, KSU 17
USC 34, Arizona 31
Nevada 38, Fresno St. 35
Texas A&M 41, Baylor 31

NCAA Football Picks 2010 – Week 10

Jason A. Staples — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 15:59:16 +0000

Already got one from Thursday night (posted to Twitter), as an overrated Virginia Tech team escaped a sub-par Georgia Tech team. Had my worst week since I can remember last week, going 13–9 and missing every close game. That drops me back to 133–43 (75.5%).

ACC
Virginia Tech 37, Ga Tech 17
Florida State 34, UNC 24 — This is a very dangerous game for FSU, as this UNC team is better than the NC State team the ‘Noles lost to last week. Had FSU pulled it out in Raleigh, I might have picked this one the other way, but I don’t think FSU loses two straight.
Virginia 31, Duke 28
Miami 24, Maryland 17
Boston College 28, Wake Forest 24

SEC
Georgia 45, Idaho St. 10
Florida 38, Vandy 13
Kentucky 56, CSU 17
Auburn 59, Chattanooga 3
Alabama 30, LSU 20
Ole Miss 54, LA-Lafayette 17
South Carolina 34, Arkansas 31 — this could easily go the other way, but with a healthy Lattimore, USC has to be the pick.
Tennessee 41, Memphis 20

Other Top 25
Oregon 63, Washington 10
TCU 28, Utah 17
Boise St. 54, Hawaii 20
Nebraska 45, Iowa State 17
OU 38, Texas A&M 31
Wisconsin 35, Purdue 14
Mizzou 42, TTU 28
Stanford 38, Arizona 28
Michigan St. 35, Minnesota 10
Iowa 41, Indiana 28
Nevada 31, Idaho 20

NCAA Football Picks 2010 – Week 9

Jason A. Staples — Sat, 30 Oct 2010 16:25:18 +0000

Missed my FSU-NCSU pick when Florida State decided to kick the ball around all game, flush a couple touchdown drives, and fumble inside the five yard line with under a minute to play. Jimbo Fisher was obviously devastated but extremely gracious—actually actively thanking the media after the postgame press conference, something I’ve never really seen before in that kind of context. Either way, I’m 0–1 for the week. Last week: 18–5, Season 120–35 (77.5%).

ACC:
Florida State 38, NC St. 24
Miami 38, UVa 7
UNC 34, W&M 24
Clemson 35, BC 10
Wake Forest 31, Maryland 28
Navy 45, Duke 27

SEC:
Georgia 29, Florida 20
South Carolina 31, Tennessee 14
Auburn 38, Ole Miss 31
Arkansas 45, Vandy 17
Kentucky 35, Miss St. 31

Top 25:
USC 41, Oregon 38
TCU 42, UNLV 7
Nebraska 35, Mizzou 24
Utah 31, Air Force 21
OU 54, Colorado 17
Ohio St. 63, Minnesota 7
Stanford 38, Washington 28
Arizona 41, UCLA 24
Nevada 45, Utah St. 20
Baylor 31, Texas 28
Oklahoma St. 48, Kansas St. 35

NCAA Football Picks 2010 – Week 8

Jason A. Staples — Sat, 23 Oct 2010 14:30:18 +0000

A very tough week of picks this week; a lot of games that could go either way on the slate.

ACC:
Miami 28, UNC 24 (I would ordinarily pick UNC here, but with the loss of Pianalto, my gut says Miami)
VaTech 45, Duke 13 (VaTech has cruised through the easy portion of their schedule, leading many to think they’ve dramatically improved; they’ll fall again once they have to play decent teams)
Boston College 20, Maryland 17
Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 24
Virginia 28, Eastern Michigan 24

SEC
Georgia 38, Kentucky 35
Arkansas 41, Ole Miss 31
Auburn 31, LSU 20
South Carolina 37, Vandy 10
Miss St. 31, UAB 13
Alabama 42, Tennessee 14

Other Top 25:
Oklahoma 33, Mizzou 27

OU holds a long winning streak against Missouri, but this might be Mizzou's best chance in years.

TCU 35, Air Force 14
Michigan St. 35, NW 20
Utah 31, Colorado St. 17
Ohio St. 38, Purdue 13
Stanford 45, WSU 10
Iowa 31, Wisconsin 20
Nebraska 31, Oklahoma St. 21
Arizona 28, Washington 24
Texas 45, Iowa St. 7
West Virginia 34, Syracuse 17
Baylor 35, Kansas St. 28

Last week: 20–7; Season: 102–30.

Must-read on Myron Rolle

Jason A. Staples — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 17:53:11 +0000

ESPN’s Outside the Lines has done a pretty good piece on former Florida State safety and Rhodes Scholar Myron Rolle. It’s well worth the read. I’ve spent a good bit of time with Myron’s brother McKinley, and I have a great deal of respect for the Rolles. I’ll say this: don’t doubt Myron in the NFL. He’ll be a success there and will quickly be regarded as one of the better safeties in the league. The guy has worked his tail off, and he’ll be a much better fit for what NFL teams will do with him than he was as an FSU rover. McKinley has told me to expect 4.5 in the 40 at worst at this year’s NFL combine; after that, don’t be surprised if Myron goes in the second round. There are a couple teams that love him, and that’s all you need in the draft.

Best article I’ve read on health care reform yet

Interview about ESPN Report on the FSU Academic Scandal

Jason A. Staples — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 02:42:44 +0000

A while back, I did a brief interview for a blog article examining ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” report on the Florida State athletic department’s academic scandal; since I was both a former player (albeit briefly) and a former tutor in the athletic department, I was able to see both sides of the academic support elements of the athletic department, and the interview reflects that. It was a pretty good writeup in my opinion. I plan to do a post on the ESPN report myself soon as well. The article is here: In Response to Outside the Lines.